Success-slope effects on the illusion of control and on remembered success-frequency
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2013, Vol 8, Issue 4
Abstract
The illusion of control refers to the inference of action-outcome contingency in situations where outcomes are in fact random. The strength of this illusion has been found to be affected by whether the frequency of successes increases or decreases over repeated trials, in what can be termed a “success-slope” effect. Previous studies have generated inconsistent findings regarding the nature of this effect. In this paper we present an experiment (N = 334) that overcomes several methodological limitations within this literature, employing a wider range of dependent measures (measures of two different types of illusory control, primary (by self) and secondary (by luck), as well as measures of remembered success-frequency). Results indicate that different dependent measures lead to different effects. On measures of (primary, but not secondary) control over the task, scores were highest when the rate of success increased over time. Meanwhile, estimates of success-frequency in the task did not vary across conditions and showed trends consistent with the broader literature on human memory.
Authors and Affiliations
Anastasia Ejova, Daniel J. Navarro and Paul H. Delfabbro
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP678086
- DOI -
- Views 125
- Downloads 0
An interpretation of focal point responses as non-additive beliefs
This paper provides a novel interpretation of focal point responses (0, 50, 100 percent) in terms of ambiguous beliefs dynamics that arise in new developments of decision theory such as Choquet expected utility theory. I...
Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking”
Psychologists typically measure beliefs and preferences using self-reports, whereas economists are much more likely to infer them from behavior. Prediction markets appear to be a victory for the economic approach, having...
Change and status quo in decisions with defaults: The effect of incidental emotions depends on the type of default
Affective states can change how people react to measures aimed at influencing their decisions such as providing a default option. Previous research has shown that when defaults maintain the status quo positive mood incre...
The role of character strengths in economic decision-making
We aggregated data from 28 studies (total N=13,386) to assess the relationship between individual differences in character strengths, as described by the VIA model of character, and economically-relevant behaviors and co...
Measuring Social Value Orientation
Narrow self-interest is often used as a simplifying assumption when studying people making decisions in social contexts. Nonetheless, people exhibit a wide range of different motivations when choosing unilaterally among...