Abstract

In this study, vehicle ownership in Turkey is modeled using a new meta-heuristic optimization technique and projection are executed for the future. The models that estimate the number of vehicles per 1000 people has been developed via the Flower Pollution Algorithm (FPA) which is one of the most recent and most popular optimization methods in recent years, While the models were being developed, linear and force forms were proposed using 3 independent parameters. For the input parameters of the models, the License Number (LS) between 2004 and 2016, the Domestic Product per Capita (GNP) as dollars and fuel prices (as gasoline, diesel and LPG) were used. The coefficients of the two models were optimized by FPA and models were created to obtain the number of vehicle for each fuel consumption. The sum of number of vehicle according to fuel types shows the vehicle ownership in Turkey and the performances of the models have been evaluated statistically. The statistical results have showed that the FPA approach demonstrated its usefulness in vehicle ownership by showing an efficient and successful performance. In parallel with the increase in stability and welfare in Turkey, it is estimated that the number of vehicles will continue to increase rapidly and will increase by about 30% in 2025.

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