The less-is-more effect: Predictions and tests
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2010, Vol 5, Issue 4
Abstract
In inductive inference, a strong prediction is the less-is-more effect: Less information can lead to more accuracy. For the task of inferring which one of two objects has a higher value on a numerical criterion, there exist necessary and sufficient conditions under which the effect is predicted, assuming that recognition memory is perfect. Based on a simple model of imperfect recognition memory, I derive a more general characterization of the less-is-more effect, which shows the important role of the probabilities of hits and false alarms for predicting the effect. From this characterization, it follows that the less-is-more effect can be predicted even if heuristics (enabled when little information is available) have relatively low accuracy; this result contradicts current explanations of the effect. A new effect, the below-chance less-is-more effect, is also predicted. Even though the less-is-more effect is predicted to occur frequently, its average magnitude is predicted to be small, as has been found empirically. Finally, I show that current empirical tests of less-is-more-effect predictions have methodological problems and propose a new method. I conclude by examining the assumptions of the imperfect-recognition-memory model used here and of other models in the literature, and by speculating about future research.
Authors and Affiliations
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP677742
- DOI -
- Views 127
- Downloads 0
Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research
Decision research in psychology has traditionally been influenced by the homo oeconomicus metaphor with its emphasis on normative models and deviations from the predictions of those models. In contrast, the principal met...
Age-related differences in adaptive decision making: Sensitivity to expected value in risky choice
While previous research has found that children make more risky decisions than their parents, little is known about the developmental trajectory for the ability to make advantageous decisions. In a sample of children, 5-...
The size and distribution of donations: Effects of number of recipients
Whereas much literature exists on “choice overload”, less is known about effects of numbers of alternatives in donation decisions. We hypothesize that donations increase with the number of recipients, albeit at a decreas...
Spontaneous associations and label framing have similar effects in the public goods game
It is known that presentation of a meaningful label (e.g., "The Teamwork Game") can influence decisions in economic games. A common view is that such labels cue associations to preexisting mental models of situations, a...
Pace yourself: Improving time-saving judgments when increasing activity speed
The time-saving bias describes people’s tendency to misestimate the time they can save by increasing the speed in which they perform an activity such as driving or completing a task. People typically underestimate time s...