The three-point approximations for a distribution function of uncertain parameter to estimate technical and economic indicators relevant for stochastic modeling
Journal Title: Проблеми загальної енергетики - Year 2016, Vol 0, Issue 2
Abstract
Simulation accuracy increase of a wide class of physicalobjects with uncertain technical and economic parameters, performed with deterministic and stochastic models (DSM), relevant for solving economic and mathematical problems and probabilistic methods use (Monte Carlo method points); for power systems in particular. Standard functions of stochastic (uncertain) model parameters representation have been analyzed using the three-point estimate approach for distribution of probable values. Synthetic asymmetrical probability density function based on the standard normal distribution, which is suitable to draw the forecast and/or statistical distribution of possible values of modelled parameters for an energy facility, and the analytical records for the computation of the distribution moments. Variant and comparative price calculations has been completed using various probabilistic methods to indicate higher attainable accuracy of numerical modeling results provided the three-point approximation technique model is applied to estimate the model parameters.
Authors and Affiliations
Vasyl Kostiuk
Keywords
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- EP ID EP456164
- DOI 10.15407/pge2016.02.026
- Views 170
- Downloads 0
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