Time series analysis and prediction model of percentage of influenza-like illness ï¼ILIï¼ cases in Shanghai
Journal Title: Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine - Year 2023, Vol 35, Issue 2
Abstract
ObjectiveTo predict the incidence trend of influenza-like illness proportion ï¼ILI%ï¼ in Shanghai using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model ï¼SARIMAï¼ï¼ and to provide an important reference for timely prevention and control measures.MethodsTime series analysis was performed on ILI% surveillance data of Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention from the 15th week of 2015 to the 52nd week of 2019ï¼ and a prediction model was established. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average ï¼SARIMAï¼ model was established using data from the foregoing 212 weeksï¼ and prediction effect of the model was evaluated using data from the latter 36 weeks.ResultsFrom the 15th week of 2015 to the 52nd week of 2019ï¼ the average ILI% in Shanghai was 1.494%ï¼ showing an obvious epidemic peak. SARIMAï¼1ï¼0ï¼0ï¼ ï¼2ï¼0ï¼0ï¼ 52 was finally modeled. The residual of the model was white noise sequenceï¼ and the true values were all within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values.ConclusionSARIMAï¼1ï¼0ï¼0ï¼ ï¼2ï¼0ï¼0ï¼ 52 can be used for the medium term prediction of ILI% in Shanghaiï¼ and can play an early warning role for the epidemic and outbreak of influenza in Shanghai.
Authors and Affiliations
QIAN Chensi,JIANG Chenyan,XIA Han,ZHENG Yaxu,LIU Xinghang,YANG Mei,XIA Tian,
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP742088
- DOI -
- Views 9
- Downloads 0
Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai
ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghaiï¼ and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes.MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate ï¼TMRï¼ï...
Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 patients in Shaanxi Province
ObjectiveTo describe the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 patients in Shaanxi Province from December 2021 to January 2022.MethodsAll COVID-19 patientsâ information was obtained from the Health Committee of S...
Drug resistance and homology of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli in sentinel hospital of Fengxian District of Shanghai， 2019‒2022
Objective We conducted a drug resistance and homology analysis of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli （DEC） in Fengxian District of Shanghai in order to provide a basis for clinical rational drug use， risk monitoring and e...
Key issues in the response of tertiary public hospitals to public health emergencies in China
ObjectiveTo identify and clarify the key issues faced by tertiary hospitals in responding to public health emergencies.MethodsA literature review index system was constructed, and key issues were identified using hierarc...
Visual analysis of social isolation studies on adolescents based on Web of Science
ObjectiveTo perform visual analysis of the literature in the field of adolescent social isolation in order to provide reference for research on social isolation of Chinese teenagers.MethodsLiterature related to adolescen...