TÜRKİYE’DE YAPISAL MALİ REFORMLARIN BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

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TÜRKİYE’DE YAPISAL MALİ REFORMLARIN BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Journal Title: Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi - Year 2018, Vol 5, Issue 3

Abstract

Etkin, verimli ve güçlü bir sosyo-ekonomik yapı için mevcut sistemin yeniden yapılandırılması olarak ifade edilebilecek yapısal reformlar günümüzde en çok tartışılan konulardan biridir. Ülkeden ülkeye farklı nedenlere göre çeşitlilik arz eden yapısal reformların başta ekonomik olmak üzere siyasi, sosyal ve mali boyutları bulunmakta ve makroekonomik değişkenler üzerinde belirleyici olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de yapısal mali reform çabalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde bir etki yaratıp yaratmadığı, reforma konu olan mali araçlar baz alınarak analiz edilmiştir. Belirlenen mali değişkenlerin büyüme üzerindeki etkisi regresyon analizi ile test edilmiştir. Veri seti 2006 Ocak ve 2017 Aralık dönemini kapsamaktadır. Analiz sonuçları, Türkiye’de giderlere yönelik yapılacak reformların aksine gelirlere yönelik yapılacak reformların büyümeyi hızlandıracağını göstermektedir. EXTENDED SUMMARY Structural reforms are increasingly emerging in today's macroeconomic policy debates. Structural reforms, which are expressed as restructuring of the system in order for a system to work more efficiently and to be more resistant to shocks, are determinative in ensuring a strong, sustainable and balanced growth.. For economies with stable, employmentgenerating, technology-driven, environmentally-sensitive and having strong social capital, it is important that the structural problems in the country are correctly identified and relevant structural reforms are passed on. Countries should set their priorities on structural reforms and take into account the situation and economic objectives they are involved in. Otherwise, structural reforms that are inadequate and not correctly identified reduce the competitiveness of countries; making the economic crises clearer. Even though politicians are reluctant to implement because of their high costs and positive longterm effects, permanent improvements made structural reforms inevitable. Structural reforms that vary from country to country for different reasons have political, social and financial dimensions, in particular economic, and are determinants of macroeconomic variables. Structural reforms can be indirectly measured by looking at the changes on some macroeconomic variables such as economic growth have caused. In the literature, although there are studies examining different countries or groups of countries, no study has been made on Turkey statistically analyzing the effects of structural financial reform until now. In this study, structural fiscal reforms and their impacts on economic growth are examined in terms of Turkey. The issue of the necessity of structural reforms in Turkey, especially after the 2001 crisis, has started to be voiced aloud. Efforts to pass on structural reforms in the framework of economic policies have gained momentum. Although some of the completed structural fiscal reforms, the need continues to increase in many areas in Turkey. In this context, the structural fiscal reforms that constitute the subject of our work also include steps to be taken or discarded, primarily reforming taxes and public expenditures. Firstly, the scope of structural financial reforms is mentioned in the study. Later, the impacts of reform efforts on financial instruments such as tax, public expenditure, debt and budget on economic growth and some basic macroeconomic indicators are discussed and the studies done in this regard is discussed. Then, after the 2001 crisis in Turkey made or planned structural fiscal reforms have been mentioned. Lastly, the impacts of structural reforms towards fiscal instruments on economic growth have been analyzed by means of regression method for the period of 2006 January-2017 December. The change in the budget system that has been created on the data has been decisive in the consideration of the post-2006 period in the analysis. In the analysis, while the internal debt stock, the general budget balance and financing item data have been taken from the Undersecretariat of Treasury, the central government budget revenue and expense classification series have been taken from the Ministry of Finance. Because GDP series can not be measured with monthly frequency, this series is replaced by industrial production index data following a similar path. The data used in the study are set monthly, including the appropriate subcategories. The general budget balance is measured in general budget primary balance, central government budget revenues and expenditures, tax revenues, income taxes, corporate tax and domestic debt liabilities (thousand TL). All data were obtained from the Central Bank Electronic Data Distribution System. According to the analysis results, it was found that the general budget primary balance, tax revenues and income tax are related to growth. According to the long-term results, tax revenues and income taxes are more likely to affect growth. expectation that the structural reforms would be effective in terms of both expenditures and revenues, whereas only revenues affected growth. In this context, contrary to the reforms to be made for expenditures in Turkey reached to the conclusion that for the reforms towards revenues to accelerate growth. So, the just and balanced distribution of the tax burden should be ensured. Therefore, the tax burden on the wage earner and the small employer should be improved, and the tax deductions and exemptions on the high income should be extended to other segments. Ensuring justice and balanced distribution in the tax system will bring both the continuity and the increase in the tax revenues while making the tax system modern and equitable. Justice in the tax system is also important in terms of preventing tax evasion. The fight against tax evasion is one of the most important dimensions of structural fiscal reforms. So, efforts to make controls more effective, to increase deterrence of punishment, to strengthen tax consciousness and to provide some facilities should be accelerated. In addition, the fight against unregistered money inflows and outflows should be further strengthened. The way to increase tax revenue by just and effective way by expanding the tax base should be sought. Although the results of the analysis do not reach meaningful results for the expense, the improvements to be made in the expense part will have an impact on the budget balance and tax revenues. It is therefore necessary for the government not to make unnecessary expenditures, to avoid certain risks while carrying out certain investments through private sector cooperation, and to be able to sustain fiscal discipline. Perhaps the most important thing to do is to support and encourage production. Providing continuity and increase in production will also bring growth. The development of taxes and incentives for production, employment and R & D initiatives plays a decisive role in ensuring fiscal discipline by using public expenditures effectively and efficiently. In this sense, especially in recent years, the tax system and the reforms that have been tried to be done in institutional structuring have attracted attention.

Authors and Affiliations

Özge UYSAL ŞAHİN, Sevda AKAR

Keywords

Yapısal Mali Reformlar Türkiye Büyüme Regresyon Analizi Structural Fiscal Reforms Turkey Growth Regression Analysis

EP ID EP448462
DOI 10.30798/makuiibf.423302
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