Using Adaptive Forecasting Models in the Contemporary Conditions of the Financial-Economic Space
Journal Title: Бізнес Інформ - Year 2015, Vol 10, Issue 0
Abstract
The article is aimed at a theoretical-methodological substantiation and practical application of the adaptive forecasting models in the development of adaptation measures. Evolution of the use of adaptive models, particularly its simple form - exponential smoothing - as well as change of its basic principles when building forecasts has been considered. It has been determined that most adaptation measures are directed to «survival». However, current conditions put forward other requirements: in order to become competitive, «protective» methods are not sufficient, there is the need for adaptation measures aimed at development. With regard to the volatile and uncertain financial-economic space, the best basis for establishing such measures is the short-term forecasting (until 3 years) that would preserve the representativeness of the results. Thus, the methodology set out in article as to applying adaptive models for enterprises is also suitable for forecasting of main parameters of banks' activities with introduction of corresponding adjustments and refinements that will improve efficiency of the process of adaptation to characteristics of the financial-economic space.
Authors and Affiliations
Galyna Azarenkova, Ievgeniia Olefir, Hanna Kriukova
Keywords
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