Using the Elements of Fuzzy Logic Methods in the Evaluation of Investment Risks
Journal Title: Бізнес Інформ - Year 2016, Vol 4, Issue
Abstract
The article considers the problem of evaluation of investment risks in the face of uncertainty. The article displays the main aspects of informational incompleteness: inaccuracy, ambiguity, and vagueness, describes their causes. The essence of the basic methods for evaluating investment risks: correction of risk adjustment, analytical estimation, expert estimation has been considered and their main advantages and disadvantages have been allocated. Benefits of fuzzy logic in analyzing investment projects under conditions of uncertainty have been displayed. The algorithm of forming the base of rules in the system for fuzzy output has been described. Mechanisms for fuzzy output have been analyzed by different algorithms. The essence of the most common packages such as Fuzzy Logic Toolbox and Flex Tool for MatLab Mathworks, Fuzzy TECH, CubiCalc, FIDE, as well as JFS package has been considered. The necessity of introducing a system for evaluation of investment risks based on fuzzy logic has been substantiated. The model can be used as a basis for establishing systems for supporting the decision-making in the management of investment risks.
Authors and Affiliations
Vladymir Teneta
Keywords
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