Will robots be picking strawberries?

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Will robots be picking strawberries?

Journal Title: Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie - Year 2018, Vol 47, Issue 2

Abstract

The subject of the essay is a rapidly progressing process of robotization of economies. Poland is one of the countries with high dynamics of introducing robots. This is the effect of increasing labour force deficit and growing labour costs. According to data from the Inter-national Federation of Robotics, between 2011 and 2016 the number of such devices in Poland increased by 20% on a yearly average. Using the example of the process of mecha-nisation in agriculture, the Author demonstrates the problems that robotization can solve, but can also create new ones. It’s strawberry season. Many owners of strawberry plantations in Poland have problems with collecting the fruit – there is a shortage of labour. But this shortage applies also to other professions. Eurostat reports that in Poland, in April 2018, the unemployment rate amounted to 3.8%. In practice, this means that we have only natural unemployment, voluntary unemployment, so-called equilibrium unemployment. Those without work do not accept the offered wage conditions, and prefer to remain unemployed. The scarcity of the labour factor in Poland for several years has been mitigated by economic immigration, mainly from Eastern European countries and also from Asia. Immigration contributes to postponing the problem of labour scarcity, especially on the labour market involving works with relatively low demands regarding qualifications. These include seasonal work in agriculture, which so far has not been mechanized, and strawberry picking is among them. The shortage of labour supply leads to increasing the costs of workforce. The mechanism causing low prices of the labour factor expires. The market compels the companies to increase wages, and this changes the relationship of the prices of capital and labour. Capital becomes relatively cheaper and cheaper, and this leads to the reduction in the demand for work, at the same time increasing the demand for capital (including in the form of robots). However, it should be remembered that substituting labour with capital (the phenomenon of substitution of production factors) is a gradual and lengthy process. For this to happen, economic and non-economic preconditions must occur. If a cash machine is more efficient (and cheaper) than a cashier, the bank will be interested in replacing a cashier with a cash machine. In the case of many plant products, a successive mechanisation of cultivation and harvest has occurred. A modern farmer, running his activity in the developed countries, does not have to go behind the plough, does not mow grain with a sickle, does not collect potatoes by hand. These activities are done using tractors, together with assembly units (machine complex) for cultivation, sowing, fertilising, and plant protection. Products are collected with harvesters – for cereal and root crops. Machines are more efficient than men, and additionally, they relieve men from the most arduous work. But are they cheaper? An economic calculation, comparing the costs of crop production using labour-intensive techniques and labour-saving techniques (capital-intensive) is complicated. It must take into account not only direct production costs, but also the availability of production factors – labour and capital. In the long-run, the availability of the labour factor is limited, and capital, in a sense – unlimited. This constitutes a parallel reason, apart from the economic reason, for the substitution of production factors. Including the rationale related to the rarity of the labour factor in the process of substitution of production factors in agriculture results in increasing production costs. It is then reflected in increasing prices of products of agricultural origin, mainly food, unless some of the costs are compensated by the state or an organisation of states. Thanks to this, the manufacturers of these countries are competitive on the market of products. In the case of picking strawberries and other delicate fruit, the case of substitution of the labour factor with capital is not so simple. Who would be picking these strawberries? Replacing a man with capital (machine, robot) is currently too expensive to be profitable. Who would buy strawberries at a price several times higher than they are now? Today, there is still a choice, as we can buy cheaper strawberries from Spain, Italy or Morocco. These countries still use cheap labour of economic immigrants from Africa. That is why they are competitive. Thus, so far, the issue has been postponed due to globalisation of the labour market, which led to cheapening of the work factor by more than ten times in the countries of Asia or South America. But this gradually comes to an end. What will happen when the cheap workforce, talented and willing to perform some activities (although simple, but still sensitive) in agriculture, such as strawberry picking, gets exhausted? Will robots step in? How much will it cost? Will the market accept the price? Or maybe there will be varieties of such plants grown, which have delicate fruits sensitive to crushing, but which will facilitate mechanical harvesting? The example of strawberries should be seen symbolically, as it is about the professions and activities in which, for now, it is difficult to replace a man. This is the type of problems that makes it necessary to look for substitutes for work due to its scarcity (lack of supply). It is different from the situation, where there is no shortage of labour factor, it is “pushed away”, and its substitution occurs for economic reasons (robots are more efficient and cheaper). Let us leave aside the problem of filling the gap resulting from the shortage of labour factor and move on to a typical phenomenon of substituting the labour factor with capital and its consequences. This process is normal, and results from the technological progress. Robotisation is treated as the fourth stage of the industrial revolution (Industry 4.0). Institute of Technology believe that the robot revolution has already begun. The latest robot built by Boston Dynamics has acrobatic skills. But in this revolution, it is all about replacing people in work. According to the Gumtree.pl research conducted as a part of the programme “Start do Kariery” (Start to a professional career), already in 25 years almost half of the professions on the labour market will be replaced by machines. The most threatened professions are those that require low skills and repetitive operations. These include professions and activities in banks, post offices, libraries, at the reception desks, in insurance agencies, or in call centres. However, as I stated above, not all professions (activities) that require low qualifications will be quickly replaced by robots. It will be most difficult to replace a man by robots in the professions that are difficult to capture in specific algorithms, e.g. a priest or therapist. This also applies to professions requiring creativity, ability to create new ideas and entering into relationships with other people. Currently, still, it is difficult to substitute human activities that require gripping, and it is a basic requirement while picking delicate fruit (including strawberries). Solving the problem of efficient gripping is still one of the biggest challenges for robotics engineers. It is not known exactly how many professions will be eliminated by automation. We also do not know how robotisation and automation will affect the society and economy. Even if robots right now do not have as advanced learning abilities as humans, it is worth asking questions as to the relation in which they should be with humans. This is a great challenge of modern capitalism, which is based on the marketdriven shaping of income. The marketdriven shaping of income means that the income is derived from the sale of the factors of production. Most people have income from employment. Robots change this mechanism. It is estimated that scientific progress allows to create such number of robots that will replace billion people in the world. What will happen to those “superseded”, what will replace the income from human labour? Capitalism will face an institutional challenge, and must replace the market-driven shaping of income with another, new one. The introduction of robots means microeconomic struggle with the barrier of demand. The solution to the problem requires changing the mechanism, so a breakthrough innovation of a social and political nature. We could say that technological and product innovations force the creation of social and political innovations (maybe political changes). Product innovations solve some problems (e.g. they contribute to the reduction of production costs), but at the same time, give rise to others. The key issue will be the lack of social security, or health security of unemployed people. Where will the funds for the payment of pensions for a significant portion of unemployed people come from? The emergence of these problems is not an argument for suppressing the robotisation process. Robots do not take jobs of people, but move them to other professions, activities. If it was otherwise, we would be out of work since the 19th century. Generally, people do not need work, but the things it gives us: the means of subsistence and the sense of fulfilment. Robotisation is a manifestation of the development of productive forces, which contradict with the existing (conservative) principles of the socio-political system. The solution to this conflict should not involve inhibiting the development of robotisation but adjusting the system principles. These principles should include regulations concerning the creation of pension and health funds. Robots probably will have to be taxed and have social security premiums imposed on them. In the longer run, automation and robotisation of industry do not threaten the labour market, which is confirmed by global experience. In recent years, despite the increased dynamics of industry automation, a considerable decline in unemployment has been recorded. This situation is one of the examples showing that automation has a positive effect on the development of labour markets. Although it is true, that robots replace some people carrying out the less complex tasks, often repetitive and exposing them to harmful factors. As a result, some of employees face the need to change the previous profession, requiring extending their knowledge and skills, or retraining for positions, where the application of robots and machines is unprofitable or impossible. However, modern industrial plants still need human labour, such as engineers, managers with appropriate knowledge, security experts or maintenance services. Robotisation may be accelerated by comprehensive and effective social legislation, protecting employees on the socalled temporary contracts. In Sweden, it is sometimes easier and in the long-term cheaper to buy robots to operate a gas station or a grocery store than to hire an employee, who will be difficult to lay off. In the German economy, there are 261 industrial robots per 10 thousand employed. The processes similar to those in Germany take place in the most developed industrial regions of Western Europe. In Poland, the same number is 14. Poland, though, is one of the countries with high dynamics of introducing robots. According to data from the International Federation of Robotics, between 2011 and 2016 the number of such devices in Poland has increased by 20% on a yearly average. As a result, at the beginning of 2017 (and this is the latest data available to IFR) there were 9.7 thousand robots working for us. An example of success is the mobile application-controlled robot Photon, created by the students of the Białystok University of Technology, which teaches children programming and develops itself at the same time. For over 100 years, we have been dealing with replacing human labour with machines, and so far, none of the catastrophic scenarios have taken place. People rebelled against the thought of being replaced by machines. They even resorted to destroying them (Luddite). Adjustment processes take place in the longer term. The professional structure of people changes, and together with the increasing level of economic development, the part of which is automation and robotisation, the share of people employed in services increases.

Authors and Affiliations

Roman Sobiecki

Keywords

EP ID EP381715
DOI 10.5604/01.3001.0012.4724
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