A shift in strategy or “error”? Strategy classification over multiple stochastic specifications
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2011, Vol 6, Issue 8
Abstract
We present a classification methodology that jointly assigns to a decision maker a best-fitting decision strategy for a set of choice data as well as a best-fitting stochastic specification of that decision strategy. Our methodology utilizes normalized maximum likelihood as a model selection criterion to compare multiple, possibly non-nested, stochastic specifications of candidate strategies. In addition to single strategy with “error” stochastic specifications, we consider mixture specifications, i.e., strategies comprised of a probability distribution over multiple strategies. In this way, our approach generalizes the classification framework of Bröder and Schiffer (2003a). We apply our methodology to an existing dataset and find that some decision makers are best fit by a single strategy with varying levels of error, while others are best described as using a mixture specification over multiple strategies.
Authors and Affiliations
Clintin P. Davis-Stober and Nicholas Brown
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP677863
- DOI -
- Views 157
- Downloads 0
Inverted U-shaped model: How frequent repetition affects perceived risk
We asked how repeated media reports on technological hazards influence an individual’s risk perception. We looked for two contradictory effects, an increasing effect of repetition on perceived risk with the first few rep...
Validation of the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale in Chinese college students
Using college student samples, two studies were conducted to validate the Chinese version of the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) Scale. The results replicated important findings reported by Weber et al. (2002) in t...
The irrational hungry judge effect revisited: Simulations reveal that the magnitude of the effect is overestimated
Danziger, Levav and Avnaim-Pesso (2011) analyzed legal rulings of Israeli parole boards concerning the effect of serial order in which cases are presented within ruling sessions. They found that the probability of a favo...
Still no compelling evidence that Americans overestimate upward socio-economic mobility rates: Reply to Davidai & Gilovich (2018)
Davidai and Gilovich (2018) contend that (a) Americans tend to think about their nation’s income distribution in terms of quintiles (fifths), and (b) when Americans’ perceptions of socio-economic mobility rates are measu...
The impact of actively open-minded thinking on social media communication
Online, social media communication is often ambiguous, and it can encourage speed and inattentiveness. We investigated whether Actively Open Minded Thinking (AOT), a dispositional willingness to seek out new or potential...