Backward planning: Effects of planning direction on predictions of task completion time

Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2016, Vol 11, Issue 1

Abstract

People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy – known as backward planning – that may counteract this optimistic bias. Backward planning involves starting a plan at the end goal and then working through required steps in reverse-chronological order, and is commonly advocated by practitioners as a tool for developing realistic plans and projections. We conducted four experiments to test effects on completion time predictions and related cognitive processes. Participants planned for a task in one of three directions (backward, forward, or unspecified) and predicted when it would be finished. As hypothesized, predicted completion times were longer (Studies 1–4) and thus less biased (Study 4) in the backward condition than in the forward and unspecified conditions. Process measures suggested that backward planning may increase attention to situational factors that delay progress (e.g., obstacles, interruptions, competing demands), elicit novel planning insights, and alter the conceptualization of time.

Authors and Affiliations

Jessica Wiese, Roger Buehler and Dale Griffin

Keywords

Related Articles

Comparative evaluation of the forecast accuracy of analysis reports and a prediction market

This paper summarizes an empirical comparison of the accuracy of forecasts included in analysis reports developed by professional intelligence analysts to comparable forecasts in a prediction market that has broad partic...

The category size bias: A mere misunderstanding

Redundant or excessive information can sometimes lead people to lean on it unnecessarily. Certain experimental designs can sometimes bias results in the researcher’s favor. And, sometimes, interesting effects are too sma...

Improving acceptability of nudges: Learning from attitudes towards opt-in and opt-out policies

Policy makers should understand people’s attitudes towards opt-out nudges to smoothly promote and implement the policies. Our research compares people’s perceptions of opt-in and three improved versions of opt-out (trans...

Why are gainers more risk seeking

The phenomenon that prior gains may increase people’s willingness to accept risky gambles is named as the house money effect (Thaler and Johnson, 1990). Many studies have shown that the “house money effect” is a robust p...

Enlarging the market yet decreasing the profit: An experimental study of competitive behavior when investment affects the prize

In many competitive situations, our investments increase our gains: Developing better products or research proposals may lead to higher contracts or patents or larger grants. Does increasing investment in such cases alwa...

Download PDF file
  • EP ID EP678234
  • DOI -
  • Views 156
  • Downloads 0

How To Cite

Jessica Wiese, Roger Buehler and Dale Griffin (2016). Backward planning: Effects of planning direction on predictions of task completion time. Judgment and Decision Making, 11(1), -. https://europub.co.uk/articles/-A-678234