A signal detection theory analysis of racial and ethnic disproportionality in the referral and substantiation processes of the U.S. child welfare services system
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2014, Vol 9, Issue 2
Abstract
Signal detection theory (SDT) was developed to analyze the behavior of a single judge but also can be used to analyze decisions made by organizations or other social systems. SDT quantifies the ability to distinguish between signal and noise by separating accuracy of the detection system from response bias—the propensity to over-warn (too many false positives) or under-warn (too many misses). We apply SDT techniques to national and state-level data sets to analyze the ability of the child welfare services systems to detect instances of child maltreatment. Blacks have higher rates of referral and the system is less accurate for them than for Whites or Hispanics. The incidence of false positives—referrals leading to unsubstantiated findings—is higher for Blacks than for other groups, as is the incidence of false negatives—children for whom no referral was made but who are in fact neglected or abused. The rate of true positives–children for whom a referral was made and for whom the allegation was substantiated–is higher for Blacks. Values of d′ (signal strength) are roughly the same for Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics but there are pronounced group differences in C (a measure of the location of the decision threshold). Analyses show that the child welfare services system treats Blacks differently from Hispanics and Whites in ways that cannot be justified readily in terms of objective measures of group differences. This study illustrates the potential for JDM techniques such as SDT to contribute to understanding of system-level decision making processes.
Authors and Affiliations
Jeryl L. Mumpower and Gary H. McClelland
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP678115
- DOI -
- Views 141
- Downloads 0
Reply: Birnbaum’s (2012) statistical tests of independence have unknown Type-I error rates and do not replicate within participant
Birnbaum (2011, 2012) questioned the iid (independent and identically distributed) sampling assumptions used by state-of-the-art statistical tests in Regenwetter, Dana and Davis-Stober’s (2010, 2011) analysis of the “lin...
The tide that lifts all focal boats: Asymmetric predictions of ascent and descent in rankings
In six studies, we find evidence for an upward mobility bias, or a tendency to predict that a rise in ranking is more likely than a decline, even in domains where motivation or intention to rise play no role. Although pe...
Observing others’ behavior and risk taking in decisions from experience
This paper examines how observing other people’s behavior affects risk taking in repeated decision tasks. In Study 1, 100 participants performed experience-based decision tasks either alone or in pairs, with the two memb...
Professionally biased: Evidence for misestimations of driving speed, journey time and time-savings among taxi and car drivers
People make systematic and predictable mistakes regarding estimations of average speed and journey time. In addition, people have been shown to commit a time-saving bias by underestimating the time that can be saved when...
Choice-justifications after allocating resources in helping dilemmas
How do donors reason and justify their choices when faced with dilemmas in a charitable context? In two studies, Swedish students were confronted with helping dilemmas based on the identifiable victim effect, the proport...