Assessment of climatic parameters uncertainty under effect of different downscaling techniques
Journal Title: International Research Journal of Applied and Basic Sciences - Year 2014, Vol 8, Issue 9
Abstract
One of the most discussed topics in climate change studies is uncertainty. New studies underline the importance of effect of different downscaling methods on the accuracy of outputs. Therefore, in this study the uncertainty of outputs in downscaling models of LARS-WG and SDSM in Kermanshah weather station has been examined for the climatic parameters of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation, with an emphasis on A2 emission scenario and HADCM3. The results of SDSM and LARS-WG outputs have been investigated in base period in two states: with and without considering uncertainty. It was observed that, in general, both models are properly capable of simulating the existing conditions in base period. LARS-WG showed a better evaluation compared to SDSM for the parameter of precipitation. Thus, the priority of LARS-WG over SDSM in future periods implies that a decrease in precipitation for near future, and an increase in precipitation for middle and distant future are possible. Also, a rise in temperature based on the estimation provided by SDSM for future periods is anticipated as a result of this study.
Authors and Affiliations
Alireza Zamani Nouri *| Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Saveh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Saveh, Iran. email: Ar.zamani@iau-saveh.ac.ir, Mohammadreza Farzaneh| PhD Student in Water Resources Engineering, Water Engineering Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran., Kiamars Espanani| Post Graduated, Department of Water Engineering, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran.
Keywords
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