Bayesian analysis of deterministic and stochastic prisoner’s dilemma games
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2009, Vol 4, Issue 5
Abstract
This paper compares the behavior of individuals playing a classic two-person deterministic prisoner’s dilemma (PD) game with choice data obtained from repeated interdependent security prisoner’s dilemma games with varying probabilities of loss and the ability to learn (or not learn) about the actions of one’s counterpart, an area of recent interest in experimental economics. This novel data set, from a series of controlled laboratory experiments, is analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical methods, the first application of such methods in this research domain. We find that individuals are much more likely to be cooperative when payoffs are deterministic than when the outcomes are probabilistic. A key factor explaining this difference is that subjects in a stochastic PD game respond not just to what their counterparts did but also to whether or not they suffered a loss. These findings are interpreted in the context of behavioral theories of commitment, altruism and reciprocity. The work provides a linkage between Bayesian statistics, experimental economics, and consumer psychology.
Authors and Affiliations
Howard Kunreuther, Gabriel Silvasi, Eric T. Bradlow and Dylan Small
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP677693
- DOI -
- Views 144
- Downloads 0
Investigating an alternate form of the cognitive reflection test
Much research in cognitive psychology has focused on the tendency to conserve limited cognitive resources. The CRT is the predominant measure of such miserly information processing, and also predicts a number of frequent...
The Risk-as-feelings hypothesis in a Theory-of-planned-behaviour perspective
The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TpB: Ajzen, 1985; 1991) is based on a utility framework, and the Risk-as-Feelings hypothesis (RaF: Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee, & Welch, 2001) is a feelings-based behavioural model. The TpB...
Which grades are better, A’s and C’s, or all B’s? Effects of variability in grades on mock college admissions decisions
Students may need to decide whether to invest limited resources evenly across all courses and thus end with moderate grades in all, or focus on some of the courses and thus end with variable grades. This study examined w...
Normative arguments from experts and peers reduce delay discounting
When making decisions that involve tradeoffs between the quality and timing of desirable outcomes, people consistently discount the value of future outcomes. A puzzling finding regarding such decisions is the extremely h...
Translation and validation of the Moral Foundations Vignettes (MFVs) for the Portuguese language in a Brazilian sample
The Moral Foundations Vignettes (MFVs) – a recently developed set of brief scenarios depicting violations of various moral foundations – enables investigators to directly examine differences in moral judgments about diff...