Current state and dynamics of foreign trade of Ukraine

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Current state and dynamics of foreign trade of Ukraine

Journal Title: Економіка. Фінанси. Право - Year 2019, Vol 2, Issue

Abstract

Introduction. In modern conditions of national economies integration, the significant factor of the economic dynamics is the development of foreign trade. The problems of foreign trade of Ukraine were studied by many scientists. Among them, special attention should be paid to the conditions for the development of Ukrainian exports, overcoming obstacles to the formation of a powerful and competitive export sector of the economy. The purpose of work – the investigation of the current state and dynamics of foreign trade of Ukraine as well as problems of its further development. The article uses the method of analysis and synthesis, comparative historical and graphical methods. Results. The balance of foreign trade in goods and services in 2015 – the first half of 2018 was quite sharply reduced. So, in 2015 the difference between the export and import of goods and services in Ukraine was positive (3828,2 million USD). The situation deteriorated sharply in 2017 – the balance of foreign trade became negative (-2501,1 million USD). In the first half of 2018 the absolute value of the foreign trade balance decreased significantly, which is a positive development. According to the structure of exports of Ukraine, the share of exports of goods significantly exceeds the share of exports of services in 2015-2018. So, in 2017, the share of exports of services in the export of goods and services decreased to 19.84 %. The trend towards a decrease in the share of exports of services persisted in 2017 (to 19.84%) and in the first half of 2018 (18,77%). During 2015-2017 the proportion of imports of goods in Ukrainian imports has steadily increased. If it was 87.16 % in 2015, then in 2017 it was 90.05 %. The share of imports of goods continued to grow in the first half of 2018, in this period it was 91.04 %. Today the negative factors have a decisive influence on the development of foreign trade in Ukraine. Firstly, it is a high energy intensity and cost of goods and services that are created in Ukraine. Secondly, the negative impact on the development of Ukrainian foreign trade today is caused by the volatility of the exchange rate and high interest rates on loans. Thirdly, the weak development of market institutions in the state has a significant negative impact. Using the data of 2007-2017 years, the regression model of the dependence of imports on GDP was constructed and marginal propensity to import marginal propensity to import for Ukraine was calculated. Therefore, this index was 0,539, which negatively affects the value of the multiplier of government spending and reduces the efficiency of the Ukrainian economy. It should be noted, that reduction of the marginal propensity to import can be only with the full support of the state of Ukrainian enterprises and large-scale switching of the demand of the population of Ukraine for domestically produced goods. Conclusion. The priorities for the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade are determined by the necessary to transform it from a raw material appendage of economically developed countries to the country-producer of final products. In the process of the problems solving, it is important to take into account the experience of such countries as the USA, France, Japan, Germany, China and South Korea.

Authors and Affiliations

Anna Volodymyrivna Zadorozhna, Iryna Ihorivna Nakonechna

Keywords

EP ID EP670816
DOI -
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