DETERMINANTE KREDITNOG RASTA U BANKARSKOM SEKTORU BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE-DETERMINANTS OF CREDIT GROWTH IN BANKING SECTOR OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Journal Title: EMC Review: Časopis za ekonomiju i tržišne komunikacije - Year 2016, Vol 6, Issue 2
Abstract
Credit growth is function of several variables, which are from the domestic banks point of view internal and external. NPL and deposits, on bank level, nominal GDP growth, and inflation have biggest impact on credit growth. Credit growth is under direct and strong influence of global crises and of ECB monetary policy, and these variables influence is with time lag. Between factors which also influence credit growth, but which influence is not so statistically significant, like previous factors, distinguish themselves capitalization ratio and return on asset on banking sector level. Possibility of doing banking business without deposit insurance, putting limits on deposit rates and on deposit growth could contribute to decrease in banks deposit variability, and to smoothness in credit growth path, as well as insisting on capital ratio rising. If domestic economic policy want to manage credit growth in domestic banking sector it is necessary to increase quality of prudential regulation, to improve NPL management and credit risk management and to modify monetary regime, by granting permission to domestic central bank to provide credits to residents. Without providing credit to residents by Central bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is not possible to achieve price stability and it is not possible to decrease deflationary pressure. Increase in capital ratio has positive impact on credit growth, and vice versa, and that is way increase in capitalization must object of permanent supervision. Since activity and profitability of systematically important banks are one of credit growth generator, banking supervision has to have particular strategy for big banks resolution. Low influence of previous credit growth on current credit growth is motive for active countercyclical economic policy. Kreditni rast je u funkciji više varijabli, koje su sa aspekta bosanskohercegovačkih banka internog i eksternog karaktera. Najveći uticaj na kreditni rast imaju loši krediti i depoziti u bankama, stopa rasta nominalnog BDP i inflacija. Kreditni rast je i pod direktnim i jakim uticajem globalne krize i monetarne politike Evropske centralne banke (European Central Bank), sa tim da ove varijable djeluju sa vremenskim pomakom. Među faktorima koji takođe utiču na kreditni rast, ali čiji uticaj nije tako statistički signifikantan kao prethodnih faktora, izdvajaju se stopa kapitalizacije banaka i povrat na aktivu, ali na nivou cijelog bankarskog sektora. Mogućnost obavljanja bankarskih poslova bez osiguranja depozita, limitiranje pasivnih kamatnih stopa i limitiranje rasta depozitnog potencijala, bi moglo doprinijeti smanjenju varijabiliteta depozitnog potencijala banaka i izravnavanju putanje kreditnog rasta, kao i insistiranje na rastu stope kapitalizacije banaka. Ukoliko be-ha ekonomska politika želi upravljati sa kreditnim rastom u BSBH neophodno je povećati kvalitet prudencione regulacije, poboljšati upravljanje lošim kreditima i kreditnim rizicima, i modifikovati monetarni režim, u smislu davanja prava be-ha emisionoj banci da kreditira rezidentne sektore. Bez kreditiranja rezidentnih sektora od strane Centralne banke Bosne i Hercegovine nije moguće postići stabilnost cijena, a niti smanjiti deflacione pritiske. Rast stope kapitalizacije banke pozitivno utiče na rast kreditne aktivnosti banaka i obratno, te zato rast kapitalne osnove mora biti predmet stalnog nadzora. Pošto su aktivnosti i profitabilnost sistemski bitnih banaka jedan od generatora kreditnog rasta, bankarska supervizija mora imati posebnu strategiju za sanaciju velikih banaka. Nizak uticaj prethodnog kreditnog rasta na tekući kreditni rast, je motiv za aktivni anticikličnu ekonomsku politiku.
Authors and Affiliations
Dragan Jović, Miodrag Jandrić
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP247408
- DOI 10.7251/EMC1602233J
- Views 104
- Downloads 0
THE ANALYSIS OF NET POSITIONS OF THE NEW EU MEMBERS STATES IN THE EU BUDGET
Debate on the member states’ share in revenues and expenditures of the joint budget, that is, net positions of the countries in the EU budget, has been ongoing since the formation of EU. In that sense, the redistributive...
VERTIKALNI MENADŽMENT U FUNKCIJI PRODAJE -VERTICAL MANAGEMENT IN THE FUNCTION OF SALES
In this paper we have exposed the managerial vertical integration between production and sales companies in the functional marketing channels in order to successfully meet the needs of the end customer and higher profits...
PRODUCT DESIGN IN THE SERVICE OF QUALITY INTERNATIONAL MARKETING
The world is full of favorable opportunities, they could be big, small, recurrent, unrepeatable, and in the end they are always either used or missed forever. The product design is a convenient opportunity used to implem...
ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES SUPPORTED IT AS A RESPONSE TO CHALLENGES OF GLOBALIZATION
Organizations in today’s era must have the capability for innovations and changes, not only to achieve prosperity, but also to survive in a world of increasing competition. The international economic integration, the mat...
CUSTOMS RISK MANAGEMENT - TIME OF DECLARATION PROCESSING BY CONTROL CANNELS
Dealing with a large scope of turnover across the borders, Customs authorities shouldbalance the level of controls and interventions, on the one, and the time and costs relatedto declaration processing, on the other hand...