Examining the Impact of Export-Led Growth Strategy: Evidences From Nigeria (1960 – 2015)
Journal Title: International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention - Year 2017, Vol 6, Issue 4
Abstract
The Nigerian economy had for decades been dependent on the fragile leg of crude oil exports. An emerging trend however suggests that in the last ten years the economy was growing without job creation and poverty reduction consequent upon fall in the international oil markets. Expectedly, attention of scholars had shifted towards the development of non-oil exports as a substitute for this quagmire. This study analyses Export-Led Growth Strategy in Nigeria using Annual Data between 1960 and 2015. The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach on a modified Cobb Douglass Production Function in the analysis. The choice of ARDL is informed by many considerations: it can be used irrespective of whether the regressors are I(1) or I(0) or a mixture of both. Results of the findings revealed that oil exports are directly related to GDP while non-oil exports are not, and implacably non-oil exports do not impact on GDP. The study also revealed that there is a long run relationship between GDP and both components of exports (oil and nonoil) which can be used to determine the possible direction of GDP. And in case of distortion in the economy, equilibrium can be restored at 12 per cent growth rate per annum as one of the study revelations. The study among others recommends that government should diversify the economy to ensure maximum contributions from all facets of the same to enhance economic growth of the country.
Authors and Affiliations
Nasir Mukhtar Gatawa Ph. d, Lawal, Auwal Dalhatu
Keywords
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