Abstract

Objective: To estimate the risk of brucellosis diffusion through goat movement network across Nonthaburi Province, Thailand. Methods: A questionnaire-based survey was performed to collect movement data. A static weighted directed network was constructed and a spatial network distribution was plotted. Alternatively, a stochastic quantitative risk estimation was also calculated. Results: A total of 114 goat farmers responded to the questionnaires. Twenty-two provinces across Thailand were identified in the network. The highest weighted-in- and weighted-outdegree centralities were observed in Bangkok and Kanchanaburi Province at 264 and 68, respectively. Moreover, the highest import risk of caprine brucellosis into Nonthaburi Province was found in Nakhon Pathom at 13.40 ± 1.93 whereas the highest export risk was noticed in Bangkok at 17.45 ± 1.05. Conclusions: The identified provinces should be closely monitored especially in terms of animal movements. This study may help relevant authorities prioritize the high-risk areas and optimize control measures. Our methods could also be applied to other diseases or animal species in different geographical locations.

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