Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Agricultural Exports (Crops) In Nigeria
Journal Title: International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention - Year 2017, Vol 6, Issue 3
Abstract
This paper analyses short and long-run impacts of exchange rate fluctuations on agricultural exports volume in Nigeria. The data are made up of secondary sources obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics and International Financial Statistics of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) websites spanning over 34 years(1981-2014). ARDL was used as the method of analysis; the independent variables include official exchange rate, agricultural loans and relative prices of agricultural exports while the dependent variable is agricultural export volume.GARCH was used to estimate the volatility of exchange rates, and otherdiagnostic tests.The short-run results revealed that official exchange rate and agricultural loans have significant positive impact on agricultural export volumes which has the effect of expanding the dependent variable while, relative prices of agricultural exports has significant negative impact on agricultural exports volume which also has the effect of contracting the dependent variable. The long-run results revealed similar findings with the exception of official exchange rate which has statistically significant negative impact on agricultural exports volume. i.e. contrary to normal expectations. The paper recommends the relevance of stabilizing exchange rate from the present downward trend and providing farm equipment and input on credit basis by the government and private sector institutions rather than loanable fund that can be redirected to other activities other than agriculture.
Authors and Affiliations
N. M. Gatawa Ph. D, A. A. Mahmud
Keywords
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