MARTER: Markov True and Error Model of Drifting Parameters
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2020, Vol 15, Issue 1
Abstract
This paper describes a theory of the variability of risky choice that describes empirical properties of choice data, including sequential effects and systematic violations of response independence. The Markov True and Error (MARTER) model represents the formation and fluctuation of true preferences produced by stochastic variation of parameters over time, which produces changing true preference patterns. This model includes a probabilistic association between true preferences and overt responses due to random error. Computer programs have been developed to simulate data according to this model, to fit data to the TE model, and to test and analyze violations of iid (independent and identical distributions) that are predicted by the model. Data simulated from MARTER models show properties that are characteristic of real data, including violations of iid similar to those observed in previous empirical research. This paper also illustrates how methods based on analysis of binary response proportions do not and in many cases cannot correctly diagnose what model was used to generate the data. The MARTER model is extremely general and neutral with respect to models of risky decision making. For example, the transitive transfer of attention exchange (TAX) model and intransitive Lexicographic Semiorder (LS) models can both be represented as special cases of MARTER, and they can be tested against each other, even when binary choice proportions cannot discriminate which model was used to simulate the data. Software to simulate data according to this model, and to fit data to this model, to test this model, and to compare special case theories are included or linked to this article.
Authors and Affiliations
Michael H. Birnbaum and Lucy Wan
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP678458
- DOI -
- Views 157
- Downloads 0
Prospect theory, reference points, and health decisions
In preventative health decisions, such as the decision to undergo an invasive screening test or treatment, people may be deterred from selecting the test because its perceived disutility relative to not testing is greate...
Belief bias and representation in assessing the Bayesian rationality of others
People often assess the reasonableness of another person’s judgments. When doing so, the evaluator should set aside knowledge that would not have been available to the evaluatee to assess whether the evaluatee made a rea...
Hedonic “adaptation”: Specific habituation to disgust/death elicitors as a result of dissecting a cadaver
People live in a world in which they are surrounded by potential disgust elicitors such as “used” chairs, air, silverware, and money as well as excretory activities. People function in this world by ignoring most of thes...
Children’s application of decision strategies in a compensatory environment
Adaptive actors must be able to use probabilities as decision weights. In a computerized multi-attribute task, the authors examined the decisions of children (5–6 years, n = 44; 9–10 y., n = 39) and adults (21–22 y., n =...
A psychological law of inertia and the illusion of loss aversion
The principle of loss aversion is thought to explain a wide range of anomalous phenomena involving tradeoffs between losses and gains. In this article, I show that the anomalies loss aversion was introduced to explain -...