METHODOLOGICAL PROVISION FOR ESTIMATING LONG-TERM RISKS OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES
Journal Title: Інноваційна економіка - Year 2017, Vol 71, Issue 9
Abstract
Purpose. Development of methodical approaches adapted to modern management conditions for assessing the level of long-term risk of industrial enterprises. Methodology of research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is the fundamental provisions of riskology, scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists on the assessment and management of economic risks. In the process of research, methods were used: analysis and synthesis - to study the object and the subject of research; abstract-logical - for theoretical generalizations of research results and the formulation of conclusions; methods of functional dependencies, a method of rationing, methods of scaling and definition of an integrated indicator - in assessing the overall level of long-term risk Findings. The main modern methodological approaches to the assessment of the level of long-term risk are analyzed. It is established that the assessment of long-term risks, which in most cases is understood as the definition of the threat of bankruptcy, is carried out on the basis of a comparison of the calculated index with the corresponding normative values. It is revealed that such methodological approaches are rigid and do not take into account the current state of the external environment (political, social, demographic situation) of the industry (market) features, level of business activity, systemic risks, etc. This requires carrying out the procedure for adapting these models or constructing new, more flexible methods, the risk assessment for which will be based not on the normative values of certain coefficients, but on the basis of an analysis of the competitive environment of the valuation object. The author suggests his own approach to assessing the level of long-term risk based on an analysis of the system of indicators (factor-symptoms) of a group of enterprises with subsequent appropriate ranking and grouping them according to the level of riskiness of activity. Originality. A special approach is proposed for assessing the level of long-term risk based on an analysis of the competitive environment, which, unlike the existing one, provides for the scaling of the level of long-term risk using the sigmoid (S-curve), namely, the reverse logistic regression, whose feature is the increased ability to recognize values, which are inside the aggregate. Practical value. The methodology proposed in the article can be used at domestic enterprises to assess the level of long-term risk and develop a set of measures to manage it.
Authors and Affiliations
Volodymyr Shaleny
Keywords
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