MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SYSTEM-DYNAMIC APPROACH
Journal Title: Проблеми системного підходу в економіці - Year 2018, Vol 6, Issue 68
Abstract
The paper discusses the concepts of the impact of demographic processes on economic growth. There are three main hypotheses of this impact: population may limit, promote, or not influence on and not depend of the economic growth. The main publications, considering the problem, as well as those, related to models development (including system dynamic simulation models) are reviewed. The main assumptions of the basic system dynamics model are formulated. The analysis of the statistics, describing the GDP dynamics, as well as that of the indicators and main trends of demographic processes in Ukraine has been done. The structure of the basic system dynamics model includes two sub-models – demographic and economic ones. Demographic sub-model reflects the dynamics of the population of Ukraine, divided into four age groups with the corresponding birth and death rates, which in their turn depend on GDP per capita. Economic sub-model assumes that: labor resources are determined by the adult able-bodied population and the indicator of labor resources participation; GDP dynamics is calculated using a dynamic macroeconomic Cobb-Douglas production function. The model shows the interconnection of demographic and economic indicators. To substantiate the way of calculating of endogenous variables of the simulation model, birth and death rates trends for different age groups were constructed, and the parameters of two macroeconomic production functions (using able-bodied population and working capital as work factor) were estimated on the basis of the real data. The proposed simulation model realistically reflects the current processes observed in Ukraine: decrease of the total and of the working-age population, decrease of birth rates and increase of death rates, accompanied by the increase of the GDP per capita indicator.
Authors and Affiliations
Tetiana Bitkova, Yuliia Humirova
Keywords
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- EP ID EP562374
- DOI 10.32782/2520-2200/2018-6-26
- Views 125
- Downloads 0
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