MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SYSTEM-DYNAMIC APPROACH
Journal Title: Проблеми системного підходу в економіці - Year 2018, Vol 6, Issue 68
Abstract
The paper discusses the concepts of the impact of demographic processes on economic growth. There are three main hypotheses of this impact: population may limit, promote, or not influence on and not depend of the economic growth. The main publications, considering the problem, as well as those, related to models development (including system dynamic simulation models) are reviewed. The main assumptions of the basic system dynamics model are formulated. The analysis of the statistics, describing the GDP dynamics, as well as that of the indicators and main trends of demographic processes in Ukraine has been done. The structure of the basic system dynamics model includes two sub-models – demographic and economic ones. Demographic sub-model reflects the dynamics of the population of Ukraine, divided into four age groups with the corresponding birth and death rates, which in their turn depend on GDP per capita. Economic sub-model assumes that: labor resources are determined by the adult able-bodied population and the indicator of labor resources participation; GDP dynamics is calculated using a dynamic macroeconomic Cobb-Douglas production function. The model shows the interconnection of demographic and economic indicators. To substantiate the way of calculating of endogenous variables of the simulation model, birth and death rates trends for different age groups were constructed, and the parameters of two macroeconomic production functions (using able-bodied population and working capital as work factor) were estimated on the basis of the real data. The proposed simulation model realistically reflects the current processes observed in Ukraine: decrease of the total and of the working-age population, decrease of birth rates and increase of death rates, accompanied by the increase of the GDP per capita indicator.
Authors and Affiliations
Tetiana Bitkova, Yuliia Humirova
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP562374
- DOI 10.32782/2520-2200/2018-6-26
- Views 137
- Downloads 0
INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES OF INTRODUCTION OF TOURIST AND RECREATIONAL ACTIVITY
The article deals with the issues of innovative technologies for the introduction of tourist and recreational activities, identified the role of innovations in the development of tourism industry taking into account the...
THE EFFECTIVE SYSTEM OF ESTABLISHING COMPLIANCE CONTROL IN BANKING INSTITUTIONS
The article examines the notion of such economic and legal categories as compliance and compliance control based on banking sector example. The author analyzes the importance of ensuring compliance control in banks, defi...
MODERN MARKETING IN THE MODERN WORLD
The article devoted the study of changes in marketing paradigm under new conditions of economic environment. The essence of the marketing concept of enterprise management is considered and the factors leading to its chan...
THE CRISIS OF INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY SYSTEM, CURRENCY CRISIS AND ITS MODELS
In the presented article the author identifies three types of models of the currency crisis. In models of the first type (otherwise, the crisis of the current account), all variables are deterministic, and the reduction...
FEATURES OF THE USE OF PERSONNEL OUTSOURCING MATRIX AS AN EFFECTIVE TOOL FOR MANAGING COMPANIES IN THE FIELD OF TOURISM
The article is devoted to the solution of actual issues of such forms of economic relationships in which the employer transfers some of the responsibilities of the management personnel of the specialized organization (th...