Modelling pensions balance under macro-economic scenario

Abstract

The pension system brings challenges in many developed countries. While the systems were set up at a time of economic growth, policymakers are facing both economic slowdown and an aging population. Moreover, there is an incentive mis-match between short to medium term popularity and re-election versus taking necessary decisions to affect long-term sustainability of the system. In a small open economy, the situation is further accentuated by high volatility driven by migrations and cross-border workers. This paper aims to address the policymakers' challenges in these economies by providing both a highly innovative modelling that considers not only population aging but also the cohort of cross border workers and their entitlement to a partial pension in the future. It also provides an approach to analyse issues at stake and remove decision biases faced by politicians through policy options and their impact under various economic scenarios. We illustrate this approach through the case of Luxembourg and its pension challenge at horizon 2060 under three highly plausible scenarios: the "Successful economic reorientation", the "Progressive convergence to normal", and the "Perfect storm".

Authors and Affiliations

Marion Laboure

Keywords

Related Articles

Ubezpieczenia wzajemne w sektorze rolnym (Mutual insurance in agriculture)

The article deals with the research problem on how to determine the significance of mutual insurance in the agricultural sector. The aim is to analyse the current position of mutual insurance companies within the agricul...

The evolution of critical illness insurance product design on the Polish insurance market in the context of international trends

The first critical illness insurance was sold in 1983 in South Africa. As was determined in the research process, the first critical illness insurance in Poland was commercialized in 1995. Since that time, it has become...

Occupational pension schemes vs. pension funds in Central Europe. Efficiency and investment risk in the years 2012-2014 (Pracownicze programy emerytalne a fundusze emerytalne w Europie Środkowej. Efektywność i ryzyko inwestycyjne w latach 2012-2014)

The article presents calculations of pension scheme sector's efficiency in 2012-2014 in the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. Comparisons are made within a given coun-try (for Poland and Slovakia) and are fo...

Attitudes to reverse mortgages in Wielkopolska

A study was made of the opinions and attitudes of household representatives towards reverse mortgages (RMs). The authors attempt to identify the perceived significance of property ownership for quality of life during ret...

Quantitative analyses in the evaluation of the competences of healthcare providers in Poland – experiences from healthcare needs maps

The purpose of the article is to identify methods of measuring competences and competence gaps of healthcare providers. In this context, competences are defined as the ability of an organisation (business) to combine exp...

Download PDF file
  • EP ID EP254245
  • DOI -
  • Views 93
  • Downloads 0

How To Cite

Marion Laboure (2017). Modelling pensions balance under macro-economic scenario. ROZPRAWY UBEZPIECZENIOWE. Konsument na rynku usług finansowych., 25(3), 22-47. https://europub.co.uk/articles/-A-254245