New tests of cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic: Probability-outcome tradeoff with branch splitting
Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2008, Vol 3, Issue 4
Abstract
Previous tests of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) and of the priority heuristic (PH) found evidence contradicting these two models of risky decision making. However, those tests were criticized because they had characteristics that might “trigger” use of other heuristics. This paper presents new tests that avoid those characteristics. Expected values of the gambles are nearly equal in each choice. In addition, if a person followed expected value (EV), expected utility (EU), CPT, or PH in these tests, she would shift her preferences in the same direction as shifts in EV or EU. In contrast, the transfer of attention exchange model (TAX) and a similarity model predict that people will reverse preferences in the opposite direction. Results contradict the PH, even when PH is modified to include a preliminary similarity evaluation using the PH parameters. New tests of probability-consequence interaction were also conducted. Strong interactions were observed, contrary to PH. These results add to the growing bodies of evidence showing that neither CPT nor PH is an accurate description of risky decision making.
Authors and Affiliations
Michael H. Birnbaum
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP677623
- DOI -
- Views 171
- Downloads 0
Energy conservation goals: What people adopt, what they recommend, and why
Failures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by adopting policies, technologies, and lifestyle changes have led the world to the brink of crisis, or likely beyond. Here we use Internet surveys to attempt to understand the...
Toward understanding everyday decision making by adults across the autism spectrum
We focus on the everyday decision making challenges faced by high functioning adults across the Autism Spectrum using both between- and within-group comparisons. We used Mturk, backed by a combination of recruiting and s...
How many calories were in those hamburgers again? Distribution density biases recall of attribute values
Decisions that consumers make often rest on evaluations of attributes, such as how large, expensive, good, or fattening an option seems. Extant research has demonstrated that these evaluations in turn depend upon the rec...
Finding meaning in the clouds: Illusory pattern perception predicts receptivity to pseudo-profound bullshit
Previous research has demonstrated a link between illusory pattern perception and various irrational beliefs. On this basis, we hypothesized that participants who displayed greater degrees of illusory pattern perception...
Thinking dispositions and cognitive reflection performance in schizotypy
Schizotypy refers to the continuum of normal variability of psychosis-like characteristics and experiences, often classified as positive schizotypy (‘unusual experiences’; UE) and negative schizotypy (‘introvertive anhed...