Особливості інноваційно-інвестиційного розвитку України в контексті забезпечення економічної безпеки
Journal Title: Вісник Маріупольського державного університету.Серія: Економіка - Year 2018, Vol 8, Issue 15
Abstract
На основі розрахунку ключових індикаторів інноваційно-інвестиційної безпеки було визначено та обґрунтовано закономірності інноваційно-інвестиційного розвитку України, досліджено причини відхилення індикаторів безпеки країни від критеріальних значень. З застосуванням інструментарію кореляційно-регресійного моделювання визначено систему показників, що суттєво корелюють з динамікою індексів інноваційно-інвестиційної безпеки, та проведена кількісна оцінка цих взаємозв’язків на основі побудови системи регресійних моделей. Удосконалено методичний підхід щодо ідентифікації порогових значень окремих індикаторів (зокрема рівня іноземного інвестування економіки), що доцільно включити до системи моніторингу відповідних загроз економічної, зокрема інноваційно-інвестиційної безпеки. Based on the calculation of the key indicators of innovative-investment security, the regularities of innovation and investment development in Ukraine were determined and justified, the reasons for the deviation of the country's security indicators from the criteria values were investigated. Thus, the calculation of the integrated index of innovative-investment security showed that in 2010-2012 there is an increase in the level of security (by 2,27 percentage points), but its value is dangerous. In the period 2013-2016, the level of security averaged 15,09% and in general decreased by 3,63% in 2016 compared to 2013 and 6,4% compared to 2010, which corresponds to the critical level and indicates the preservation of the unfavorable trend of deterioration the overall level of innovative-investment development of the economy. So, now the level of investment-innovative security of Ukraine is assessed as critical, which has a destabilizing effect on the economic security of the country as a whole. Summarizing the results of calculations of the main indicators of innovative- investment security and its integral index, it was revealed that the main factors which nowadays reduce the level of innovative-investment security of Ukraine's economy are: insufficient level of gross fixed capital formation; a high degree of wear of fixed assets; insufficient investment in high-tech industries; insufficient foreign direct investment in Ukraine, as well as their low growth rates in comparison with the dynamics of economic growth; low level of innovation activity of enterprises along with non-satisfactory level of funding at the expense of the state budget; the reduction in the share of competitive markets and increase of monopolization; the low share of professionals and enterprises engaged in innovative activity and carry out scientific and technical work. Using the tools of correlation and regression modeling, a system of indicators is determined, which significantly correlates with the dynamics of the indices of innovative-investment security, and a quantitative assessment of these links is carried out on the basis of building a system of regression models. The conducted analysis shows that the highest correlation exists between the level of innovative - investment security and the share of capital investment in GDP (direct and very strong link, correlation coefficient is equal to 0,93). Also it is to be noted that between the security level and the share of FDI in GDP is strong (r = -0,89)/ The latter is due to the fact to that a significant increase in the share of FDI can be assessed as a threat to the economy, is due to rising dependence on foreign investors, loss of control over the private sector (is unacceptable for activities of strategic importance for economy) the interests of the state and foreign investors, the possible growth of monopolistic tendencies and the outflow of capital from the country through repatriation of profits and the like. The indicators of the innovation sphere also have a strong and significant influence on security. So, between the security level and the share of spending on scientific research and technical work in the GDP, there is significant direct correlation (r = 0,67), rate of increase (decrease) employees of scientific organizations is a strong direct relationship (r = 0,74), the dynamics of a number of innovation-active industrial enterprises visible and direct (r = 0,64). They all have a direct connection with security, because their growth depends on the improvement of innovative component of economic security. The methodological approach to the identification of thresholds the individual indicators (in particular, the level of foreign investment of the economy) was improved, which should be included in the system of monitoring of relevant threats to economic, in particular innovative-investment security. As part of the approach, a comparative analysis of the indicator of the share of FDI in total GDP (%) in countries that have a similar type of economic development with Ukraine was conducted. It was determined that Ukraine, along with countries such as Armenia, Belarus, Montenegro, Moldova, Russia, Serbia and Macedonia, is characterized by the share of FDI in GDP, which is lower than the average for the group, in particular 5,64% in 2016 for the analyzed period 2010-2016. Ukraine had a declining trend in the share of FDI in GDP (on average 0,19% annually), with countries such as Armenia (0,36% annually on average), Kazakhstan (0,18%), Kyrgyzstan (0,33%), Montenegro (2,2%, the largest decline in the group of countries studied), Moldova (0,24%), Turkmenistan (0,6%), and Uzbekistan (0,67 %). The economy of Azerbaijan is characterized by the highest rate of growth of FDI in GDP (1,8% of growth on average annually), among these countries, along with Georgia and Turkmenistan, have the largest share of FDI in GDP. Using the stochastic method t-student criterion on the basis of the proposed sample of countries thresholds for the level of foreign investment of Ukraine were calculated. The results of the monitoring the indicator of specific weight of net FDI in GDP make it possible to draw the following conclusions, namely: indicator was in the range of lower and upper optimal values in 2010-2013 and in the 2014-2015, and in 2014 (0,63%) was within the boundaries of the extreme thresholds that is associated with the decline in investment activity of foreign investors in 2014. In 2016 the proportion of net FDI in GDP is equal to 3,58%, which is in the range of 1,96% - 9,31% of the optimal values. That is, the national economy of Ukraine has the opportunity to increase the volume of attracted investments in 2,6 times, which corresponds to the upper optimal value of the indicator. As a result of this increase, the level of innovative-investment security, too, will grow, as evidenced by the strong direct link between these indicators (r = 0,75) as a result pair-wise correlation analysis. Therefore, in conditions of the dynamics of indicators characterizing the innovative-investment processes in Ukraine, the important issue should be to develop a system of monitoring indicators that directly affect the level of security. Without knowledge of the limits of security and zones of danger becomes impossible to protect the vital interests of objects of innovative-investment security of Ukraine. Thus, prospects of further scientific researches in the sphere of innovative-investment component of economic security is the determination and calculation of the threshold values all other indicators based on factor analysis as signal indicators in the system identification of the threats of innovation - investment security.
Authors and Affiliations
O. Zakharova, V. Gnidina
Keywords
Related Articles
- EP ID EP533318
- DOI -
- Views 85
- Downloads 0
Жизнеспособность промышленных предприятий : формализация и оценка
На основе формальной модели жизнеспособности предприятия уточнены экономическое содержания понятия жизнеспособности, особенности жизнеспособности предприятия как объекта измерений, предложена концепция из...
Регулювання розвитку інноваційних процесів на регіональному рівні
У статті досліджено проблеми розвитку інноваційної діяльності у Донецькому регіоні, досвід стимулювання інноваційного процесу розвинутих країн на державному рівні. This article explores the problems of inno...
Сутність та складові механізму управління кредитуванням підприємств
В статті розглянуто рівні та складові механізму управління кредитуванням виробничих підприємств. Висвітлено процес управління кредитним ризиком, який включає комплекс заходів, спрямованих на мінімізацію ризиків. Намічені...
Розвиток бібліотечної справи в Україні: теоретичні, нормативні та змістові засади
В статті аналізуються теоретичні, нормативні та змістові засади розвиток бібліотечної справи в Україні. Принципи організації бібліотечної справи розглядаються як система.
Перспективи розвитку експортних агентств в Україні шляхом об'єднання зусиль кількох підприємств або їх асоціацій
У статті розглянуто механізм функціонування експортного кредитного агентства (ЕКА), проаналізовані основні моделі експортного фінансування танаведені переваги та недоліки ЕКА порівняно з іншими кредитними інститутами. В...