Possibility of short-term forecast of snow load
Journal Title: Вісник Одеської державної академії будівництва та архітектури - Year 2017, Vol 1, Issue 68
Abstract
The 67-year data of observations of the weight of snow cover on the ground have been analyzed. The frequency of changes of the low snow seasons and snowy winters in time is confirmed. The method of short-term forecasting of the snow load values based on the results of observations of past years relies on the consideration of nonstationary sequences of annual maximum of snow weight. By analyzing the results of snow shootings was discovered the opportunity to reduce the estimated values of snow load during periods of low snow winters, which make up about half of observation. The average decrease is about 15%, and in some cases it can reach up to 40%. Comparison with actual data of the following years has shown that with a probability of 0.95 predictive values can be used for a period of up to 1...3 years. Such period of time allows to reinforce or replace bearing structures that can not resist the full snow load. The revealed expediency of short-term forecasting of snow loads induces further improvement of the methodology for calculating predictive values.
Authors and Affiliations
Victor Pashinsky, O. I. Yurchenko
Keywords
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