RISKS ANALISYS AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER ECOSYSTEMS
Journal Title: Вісник Кременчуцького національного університету імені Михайла Остроградського - Year 2018, Vol 1, Issue 111
Abstract
Purpose. The functioning of the water ecosystem management system is characterized by the lack of a systematic approach to the analysis of the state of natural reservoirs, as well as the accurate and operative measurement of the qualitative and quantitative indicators of environmental safety of the hydrosphere. Management of water ecosystems under conditions of fuzzy and incomplete information or decision-making is characterized by the presence of risks that are needed to be taken into account. The aim of the research is insuring the reliability of ecosystem assessment data in the functioning of the water ecosystem management system. Methodology. The methods of system analysis, the theory of fuzzy sets, probability theory, and decision making theory are used in the research. Findings. The analysis of the risks existing during the management of water ecosystems under conditions of indistinct and incomplete information is presented. The risks arising while ecological management of water ecosystems and the main components of risk-oriented management of ecosystem are identified. Originality. The relations between factors of processes dynamics and the degree of adequacy, reliability and uniqueness of the ecosystem's response to natural and man-made influences factors are established. The linguistic scale of risk assessments is presented. Practical value. The matrix of the probability of events of the stability of water ecosystems and the consequences of their implementation is made. Under con-ditions of uncertainty, risk assessment should be simplified to the cross of relevant probabilities of events and the con-sequences of their implementation for the sustainability of water ecosystems. Conclusions. Risk-oriented management of water ecosystems includes stages of identification, reduction of probability and assessment of risk, development of management measures taking into account the dynamics of ecosystem state change. The determination of the relation-ship between the factors of the dynamics of processes and the degree of adequacy, reliability and uniqueness of the ecosystem's response to natural and man-made influences can be represented as a sequential transition from one single factor and one parameter with one connection to a complex system under the conditions of a number of factors, parame-ters and connections that can be combined with extrapolation procedures. References 17, figures 4.
Authors and Affiliations
A. Dychko, I. Yeremeev
Keywords
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- DOI 10.30929/1995-0519.2018.4.115-121
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