Розробка сценаріїв людського розвитку на основі імпульсних і когнітивних моделей в умовах глобалізації
Journal Title: Вісник Дніпропетровського університету.Світове господарство і міжнародні економічні відносини - Year 2017, Vol 25, Issue 9
Abstract
The aim of the scientific research presents results of a study of application of cognitive and impulse models based on optimal management theory in order to predict possible scenarios of human development’s components in the context of globalization for countries with low human development rate - namely, the dynamics of average life expectancy at birth, mortality rate, development of the mass sports’ industry, which are strong indicators of the nation's health. It is proved that in times of crisis in Ukraine, the use of the advantages of impulse management for social-economic systems on different levels allows for a quicker response to the dynamic changes in public life and economic activity. Possible rational ways for health sphere regulation and the effectiveness of regulator’s impct on the averafe life expectancy were identified based on the developed congnitive models. Indicators identified are as follows: health expenses per capita, USD; life expectancy at birth, years; birth rate per 1000 inhabitants; deaths per 1000 inhabitants; the incidence of tuberculosis per 100 000 inhabitants; improved sanitation, % of population with access; the number of nurses and midwives per 1000 inhabitants; the number of doctors per 1000 inhabitants. Models of possible scenarios of regulative action for improvement of the level of average life expectancy at birsth and decrease of the death rate in Ukraine were built. Further, scenarios for evaluation of the physical cuture and mass sport’s condition were developed based on impulse modelling For analysis of the possible consequences of this sphere reform the most acceptable are analytical indicators, calculated based on the data of statistical report on physical culture and sport, which contains the following groups: physical personnel, sport equipment, financing of the sphere of physical culture and sport, sport and fitness work. The following indicators have been chosen from the listed above groups: number of inhabitats, doing any sport or fitness activitivy by regions, as result; and as factors: number of youth sport schools; number of schools of olympic reserve; number of schools of higher sportsmanship; gyms measuring at least 62 square meters; swimming pools; morbidity; funding of sports; income of population; provision of doctors for population; stadiums with at least 1500 seats; the demand for labor in the field of sports. The use of cognitive and impulse simulation based on the developed methodical positions to determine the impact of regulatory action extends the range of solving the acute problems of society through increased opportunities for monitoring changes in the characteristics of social and economic processes, allowing to develop based on them grounded scenarios for human development and socio-economic strategy, for instance, in the short, medium- and long-term prospectives. With regard to health condition, the use of impulse simulation allows to determine the most effective management actions to increase life expectancy in Ukraine, the main thrust of which is to use a rational system of public expenditure on health, which is one of the most important factors of economic growth. The developed cognitive models allow to identify effective tools for managing health sector at different stages of its reform, given the considerable dynamism of transformation of the national socio-economic system as a whole. Testing of the methods of impulse management of dynamic systems allows to work out key recommendations to overcome bottlenecks in regulation policy of mass physical culture and sports in Ukraine. These recommendations include: a balanced approach to the development of all components of sports areas - higher achievements’, youth, student, reserve, paralympic and mass sport, in particular; funding priority for programs from the state budget during the formation of civil society in the country with a gradual redistribution of load considering the economic potential of the regions; implementation of an effective system of incentives for workers to preserve their health, which would correlate with wages, additional preferences.
Authors and Affiliations
Oxana Yelisyeyeva, V. I. Sarychev
Keywords
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- EP ID EP193506
- DOI 10.15421/181703
- Views 128
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