THE DIAGNOSTICS OF REGION’S INNOVATIVE SECURITY
Journal Title: Інноваційна економіка - Year 2017, Vol 67, Issue 1
Abstract
Purpose. The aim of the paper is to develop methodical bases of diagnostics of region’s innovative security as a component of information and analytical support of system of the management of economic security in conditions of unstable economic development. Methodology of research. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is a systematic approach to the study the problem of region’s innovative security. In the process of the research we used the methods of logical rationale and of comparative analysis – for the analysis of nonlinear processes in the innovative sphere; methods of time series analysis, including Hodrick – Prescott filter, – to separation of cycles and long-term trends in the time series of indicators of region’s innovative security; methods of mathematical statistics – to identify the parameters and attributes of cyclic recurrence. Findings. In the article we propose a technique of diagnostics of region’s innovative security, based on the research the nature and causes of unstable dynamics of innovative activity. We carried out its approbation by the example of Chernivtsi region. Separation of long-term trends and cyclical components showed that, firstly, in the innovative sphere of the region, as well as the country as a whole, is observed permanent crisis. Secondly, the cyclic dynamics of indicators of innovative activity of industrial enterprises is characterized by multi-directional changes and by various wavelengths and amplitudes. We realized estimation of statistical parameters of cyclic dynamics of the time series of indicators of innovative enterprises in the region: volatility, persistence and relation to the regional business cycle. We identified a complex of endogenous and exogenous factors of cyclic recurrence of region’s innovative security and determined which ones are leading, lagging and coincident cyclical indicators of region’s innovative security. Originality. The provisions of the proposed technique of diagnostics of region’s innovative security and the results of its realization develop the methodological bases of management of region’s innovative security in the conditions of cyclic development of the economy. Practical value. The practical significance of the research lies in the fact that its results, modeling tools and software are information and analytical basis for making management decisions about innovative security of regions.
Authors and Affiliations
Larysa Yakimova
Keywords
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