A note on neglect defaulting

Journal Title: Judgment and Decision Making - Year 2008, Vol 3, Issue 4

Abstract

I introduce the notion of “neglect defaulting,” which labels the propensity to neglect possibilities which are ordinarily sensibly neglected. In familiar contexts we are well-tuned to recognize when to override the default. But outside the range of familiar experience — here in the artificial context of puzzles — these ordinarily benign defaults can make it difficult for even sophisticated subjects, such as readers of this note, to avoid responses which on reflection will be seen as obviously mistaken. A detail of particular importance is that, although subjects are easily prompted to take one step in the direction of reaching a sound response, the tendency to then neglect to consider that another step may be needed is remarkably strong. In each of the five examples the needed but usually neglected second step is quite trivial. Concluding remarks point to consequences for larger questions outside the range of familiar experience, in politics and other contexts out of scale with everyday experience.

Authors and Affiliations

Howard Margolis

Keywords

Related Articles

Biases in choices about fairness: Psychology and economic inequality

This paper investigates choices about “distributional fairness” (sometimes called “distributive justice”), i.e., selection of the proper way for resources to be distributed in group. The study finds evidence that several...

Cynicism in negotiation: When communication increases buyers’ skepticism

The economic literature on negotiation shows that strategic concerns can be a barrier to agreement, even when the buyer values the good more than the seller. Yet behavioral research demonstrates that human interaction ca...

A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals

We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a “most likely interval”, a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation...

True-and-error models violate independence and yet they are testable

Birnbaum (2011) criticized tests of transitivity that are based entirely on binary choice proportions. When assumptions of independence and stationarity (iid) of choice responses are violated, choice proportions could le...

Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test

We introduce the Berlin Numeracy Test, a new psychometrically sound instrument that quickly assesses statistical numeracy and risk literacy. We present 21 studies (n=5336) showing robust psychometric discriminability acr...

Download PDF file
  • EP ID EP677628
  • DOI -
  • Views 149
  • Downloads 0

How To Cite

Howard Margolis (2008). A note on neglect defaulting. Judgment and Decision Making, 3(4), -. https://europub.co.uk/articles/-A-677628