Determination of the forecasted demand for thermal energy by a complex method taking into account the potential of energy saving
Journal Title: Проблеми загальної енергетики - Year 2018, Vol 0, Issue 3
Abstract
We investigate specific features of the prediction of demand for thermal energy at different hierarchical levels of the structure of Ukrainian economy: state, types of economic activity, and population. We also consider the methodical approach to predicting the demand for thermal energy by a complex method with the use of normative, direct calculation and vector method of the coordination of predicting solutions. We predict the thermal energy consumption by types of economic activitiy and for the population with regard for the potential of energy saving from inter-sectional structural changes and technological potential for some types of economic activity and population by 2040. A feature of the calculation of volumes of thermal energy consumption by population lies in the use of two methods simultaneously: direct calculation for predicting the demand for hot water supply by specific thermal energy expenditures per person in the base year and demographic forecast as well as the normative method for the demand for heating of buildings in accordance with the existing heating standards with taking into account the increase in thermal efficiency of buildings. The calculation was carried out by the SPROS program, which implements the coordination of applied methods.
Authors and Affiliations
Heorhii Kuts, Olena Malyarenko, Natalia Maistrenko, Valentyna Stanytsina
Keywords
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- EP ID EP499104
- DOI 10.15407/pge2018.03.010
- Views 65
- Downloads 0
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