ENVIRONMENTAL FORECASTING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOGENICALLY TRANSFORMED MOUTH OF THE IRPIN RIVER
Journal Title: Вісник Кременчуцького національного університету імені Михайла Остроградського - Year 2018, Vol 1, Issue 111
Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of the article is to fulfill the forecast of the development of technogenically modified aquatic ecosystems. An ecosystem principle and a basin approach have been applied for the complexity and objectivity of the research. This helps to determine the structural and functional features of the development of the technogenically al-tered hydroecosystem, to find out the further retrospective development of hydroecosystems in the mouth of the Irpin River. The forecast of the ecological situation of technogenically altered aquatic ecosystems should be oriented not only on sanitary-hygienic and environmental priorities but also should use ecological and metabolic research. Such studies determine the structural and functional features of the development of technogenically conditioned aquatic ecosystems. Methodology. We have chosen a statistically-mathematical method for obtaining forecast data of water quality. This method consists of two stages: inductive (the result of the monitoring research) and deductive (extrapolation of established regularities). Results. The intensity of the compensatory mechanism of biotic self-regulation of waters is disturbed, but not completely transformed. We noticed an increase in the balance of technical capacity. The predicted value of the substance balance does not exceed 39.9, which is consistent with the indicators that characterize the maximum anthropogenic load on the mouth section of the Irpin River. Originality. For the first time hydrochemical parameters, environmental parameters that characterize the metabolic regression of chemical compounds and integrated systems – indicators have been consistently applied. Practical value. The obtained results are a benchmark for the establishment of water conservation measures to improve the peculiarities of the structural and functional development of the mouth of the Irpin River. Conclusions. Ecologically dangerous risks and the quantitative dynamics of their changes have been investigated Predictive research on changes in the quality of water in the mouth of the Irpin River has been done.
Authors and Affiliations
Ya. Pysanko
Keywords
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- EP ID EP660358
- DOI 10.30929/1995-0519.2018.4.109-114
- Views 85
- Downloads 0
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