EVALUATION OF THE VOLATILITY IMPACT OF THE WORLD RAW MATERIALS PRICES ON THE INVESTMENTS AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AMONG THE COUNTRIES-EXPORTERS OF THE NATURAL RESOURCES
Journal Title: Проблеми системного підходу в економіці - Year 2018, Vol 5, Issue 67
Abstract
An empirical assessment of the dependence of investments and private consumption of raw material by the countries-exporters from the volatility of the world prices on the raw resources has been given.It has been found that prices on the raw materials mostly do not influence the investments (in 13 out of 20 countries studied), while the independence from price volatility is much weaker (only in 8 countries). In most countries, rising of the prices on raw materials restrict investments, and this concerns as the industrialized countries (Canada, South Korea) so the countries with the lower level of income (Mexico, Malaysia, South Africa, Russia).The stimulating influence of raw material prices is statistically significant only in Brazil, although Kazakhstan is close to this dependence. In most cases, the negative dependence on the price index is combined with a similar reaction to its volatility (Canada, South Korea, Mexico, South Africa), but this is not the case with Russia, and in Malaysia and Indonesia, volatility becomes a factor for the investments increasing. There have been observed 10 cases of negative volatility influence of prices on raw materials, including the case with Ukraine. The inverse relationship between the increase in world prices for raw materials and private consumption has been revealed. Only in Georgia a positive direct link, which is a consequence of rising prices on consumer goods, has been clearly seen, but at the same time have been mentioned higher prices for crude oil (this may reflect in the increased demand in neighboring Azerbaijan and Russia). It has been determined that in industrial Canada, the inverse relationship between prices for raw materials and private consumption can be traced to all raw sub-indices – from agrarian raw materials to crude oil. Like in Malaysia, In Mexico and Chile, prices for crude oil and metals are significantly influenced, which is quite natural in terms of the specialization of raw materials exports of both countries. Similarly, higher prices for crude oil limit its consumption in Russia and Kazakhstan, but a significant stimulus effect creates higher volatility of oil prices. Quite unexpectedly, the same effect has been detected in Ukraine, although the volatility of other raw materials does not affect private consumption. From the volatility of crude oil prices, private consumption in Belarus is growing rather quickly.
Authors and Affiliations
U. М. Nikonenko
Keywords
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- EP ID EP512231
- DOI 10.32782/2520-2200/2018-5-4
- Views 123
- Downloads 0
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