FORECAST SCENARIOS OF THE MEDICINAL PLANT RAW MATERIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Journal Title: ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ ДИСКУРС - Year 2018, Vol 1, Issue 3
Abstract
In recent years, the number of operators involved in the process of commodity circulation of medicinal plant raw materials has grown rapidly, the number of consumers who use phytotherapy for the prevention and treatment of diseases is increasing. At the same time, there are a number of issues that complicate the situation on the market of medicinal plant raw materials. Therefore, the improvement of the system of strategic analysis and management of the production of medicinal plant material is one of the conditions for improving the efficiency of this industry serving as a decisive factor in its competitiveness. The research is based on the use of mathematical modeling and economic and statistical methods. A multiple regression model has been constructed and its adequacy according to Fisher's criterion has been estimated to predict the values of the indices of medicinal plant material production. Taking into account the probable technological changes of a global nature (the beginning of a new technological cycle or its delay with an emphasis on the large-scale circulation of improved innovations) and possible variants of the transformation of market conditions, we have substantiated three basic adaptation scenarios for the development of the medicinal plant raw materials market in perspective: inertial, moderate and innovation development. Projected model of volumes of medicinal plant material production, which provides for their modeling on the basis of multiple regression, has been proposed. The use of the proposed model of volumes of medicinal plant material production will make it possible to form reliable balances of demand and supply in perspective depending on the factors of influence and scenarios of its development.
Authors and Affiliations
Yurii Nykytiuk
Keywords
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