Прогнозування інвестиційної потреби харчової промисловості
Journal Title: Математичне моделювання - Year 2018, Vol 1, Issue 2
Abstract
FORECASTING OF THE INVESTMENT NEED OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY Kоreniuk P.I., Karimov H.I. The problem of the effective functioning and development of the food industry is closely linked to any changes in the demographic, social and economic situation of the country, since it must ensure the full and complete satisfaction of the needs of the population in inexpensive and high-quality food products. Despite the full description of the problem by domestic and foreign scientists, the question of building and using econometric models for forecasting is relevant and requires further research. The purpose of the research is to build analytical dependence of the activity of the food industry and its use to substantiate the forecasts of capital investment needs in the industry. Determination of the projected need for capital investment in the industry for a variety of development options is possible based on the construction of analytical dependence in the form of a production function. Using the method of least squares, the following coefficients are obtained: the scale factor а = 0,007006; the elasticity coefficients = 0,01, = 1,503308. Production of the output of the food industry last year amounted to UAH 10635.76 per person in year. The minimal task of the social development of the state is to maintain the current level of food security of the population. In three out of five possible variants of the development of the demographic situation in the country, enterprises in the food industry need to increase production volumes to ensure the consumption of the population at the level of last year. In two other cases, output can be reduced, but the need for capital investment is still preserved due to the disposal and amortization of fixed assets of the industry. To calculate the forecast needs of the food industry in capital investment, we use the previously obtained Cobb-Douglas production function. Additional capital investment needs do not include coverage of the cost of depreciation and amortization of fixed assets. The food industry of the country, in recent years, has an intense trend of development. Technical progress does not have a significant impact on the development of the industry, as well as the change in the number of staff members. Changes in the volume of food production are achieved by a change in the volume of capital investment. The food industry of the country, in recent years, has an intense trend of development. Technical progress does not have a significant impact on the development of the industry, as well as the change in the number of staff members. Changes in the volume of food production are achieved by a change in the volume of capital investment. In order to maintain the current level of population security, the needs of the industry in additional capital investments by 2020 ranges from 2 billion UAH to 10 billion UAH. Further research may be related to specification of the model, taking into account additional factors, development of mechanisms for ensuring predicted volumes of investment in the industry. References [1] Koreniuk P.I. (2009). Efficiency of use and reproduction of natural resource potential: financial factors, dominant tendencies: Monograph. Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine: DDFA, 368. [2] Eddous M. (1997). Methods of decision making. Moscow, Russia: UNITI, 590. [3] Tracy M. (1995). Agriculture and food in the economy of developed countries. SPb: Economics School, 431. [4] Taha Hemdi A. (2001). Introduction to the study of operations, 6th edition. Williams Publishing House, 912. [5] Petrenko I.S. (2016). Statistical Collection. Industry of Ukraine in 2011-2015. State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 382 . [6] Nan-Hoo O.S. (2014) . Vyrobnychi funktsii, pryklad pobudovy [Production functions, example of construction ]. 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The development of the food industry in the context of market transformations: problems of theory and practice :Monograph . Kiev, Ukraine, 331. [10] Libanova E.M. (Eds.). (2006). Kompleksnyi demohrafichnyi prohnoz Ukrainy na period do 2050 roku [Complex demographic forecast of Ukraine for the period up to 2050]. Ukrainian , 138 [in Ukrainian].
Authors and Affiliations
П. І. Коренюк, Г. І. Карімов
Keywords
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- DOI 10.31319/2519-8106.2(39)2018.154250
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