Rock bursts prediction based on analyzing maximal phenomena of seismic emission in the INGEO system
Journal Title: Mining – Informatics, Automation and Electrical Engineering - Year 2016, Vol 528, Issue 4
Abstract
Predicting the time of rock bursts in the INGEO system is based on the analysis of seismic emission registered in a seismic-acoustic system. Emission signals are generated by rock mass fracturing due to mining exploitation. Such emission is characterized by huge activity of different phenomena which enables to carry out a correct statistical analysis with the use of the hazard method, achieving suitably high resolution of interpretation results. The hazard method is based on the analysis of maximal phenomena, i.e. phenomena of maximal energy. The use of this method allows to eliminate disturbances to a large extent and, at the same time, enables to assess the probability of high-energy phenomena (rock bursts). The hazard analysis is conducted on the basis of two essential qualities of seismic emission, such as energy of phenomena and intervals between successive phenomena. These qualities are random variables of statistical distribution described by the Weibull model. Using this model one can estimate the parameters of statistical distribution of those qualities which are the basis to determine hazard parameters. The analysis is conducted based on measurement data collected from the T window, i.e. time interval measured by hours. The window is moved with the d step and the calculations are repeated. The hazard parameters were used to define the risk function FWt(QE,T) which is the measure of rock bursts hazard. This function depends on real time t which is determined as the time of the T window right edge. It is also the basis to work out rock burst hazard criteria. It is important to note that the moment a rock burst occurs is a random variable and can be determined with the accuracy of its confidence interval, with certain probability.
Authors and Affiliations
Bogdan Cianciara, Zbigniew Isakow, Kazimierz Siciński, Aleksander Cianciara
Keywords
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