The change of exchange course modeling under the macroeconomic factors influence
Journal Title: Економіка. Фінанси. Право - Year 2018, Vol 12, Issue
Abstract
Formation of the exchange rate is a multifactorial process, due to the close interconnections between the national and world economies, the interdependence of various spheres of the economy and society of the country, various situations and phenomena. Given this, the analysis of structural and contingency factors, determining the nature of their impact on the exchange rate is a prerequisite for the conduct of exchange rate policy and the forecasting of the exchange rate. As a result of the study, a methodical approach to simulating a change in the exchange rate under the influence of macroeconomic factors was developed. The implementation of the methodical approach involves: 1) the formation of a system of indicators that affect the exchange rate; 2) allocation of factors influencing the exchange rate, their economic interpretation and calculation of values; 3) the construction of a model for the dependence of the dollar against macroeconomic factors; 4) calculation of indicators of the elasticity of the exchange rate from the factors of the macro environment. The proposed methodological approach has theoretical and practical value, since it enables to determine the dominant factors of influence on the exchange rate and their strength, which can be used in the formation of the monetary policy of the state. On the basis of the values of macroeconomic factors and the dollar exchange rate for 2000-2017 the model of the exchange rate dependence on these factors was constructed, elasticity indicators were calculated which comprised -2.3% (elasticity of the course on the factor of real economic development) and + 1.9% (a monetary factor). Hence, the most effective tool for stabilizing the exchange rate is the development of the economy. However, due to the severity and duration of its implementation, the current stabilization of the course can be monetary regulation: keeping inflation and adjusting the discount rate.
Authors and Affiliations
Svitlana Anatoliivna Pustovhar, Olena Viktorivna Semykoz
Keywords
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