WORLD EXPERIENCE OF FORECASTING THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC NEEDS IN QUALIFIED PERSONNEL
Journal Title: Наукові праці. Серія "Державне управління" - Year 2016, Vol 281, Issue 269
Abstract
The article reviews the world most effective models of forecasting demand and supply of qualifi ed specialists taking into account state economic needs. The aim of the article is to make the analysis of the experience of forecasting the economy needs in qualifi ed personnel for further adaptation of this experience to the social and economic conditions of Ukraine. The article gives the analysis of the most effective models of forecasting the structural changes in the economy and employment that are developed by the following scientifi c research and government institutions and organizations in several countries: the UK Commission for Employment and Skills, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Centre of Policy Studies of Australia Monash University, Institute of Economic Structures Research and Institute of Economic Research of Germany. The models allow forecasting the employment prospects by qualifi cations, occupations, types of economic activities, sectors, as well as by gender, age, nationality and employment status. Forecasts are made mainly over a medium term projection and are adjusted on average once a year. Many models take into account technical and social changes in the structure of the economy, changes in consumer preferences, global economic conditions, occupational and geographical mobility and other factors. Models use quantitative economic and mathematical methods (input-output balance matrices, econometric methods, macroeconomic modelling, analyses of structural shifts), as well qualitative ones: experts surveys, analysis of key trends and threats, the development of scenarios etc. All models are complex, comprehensive, evidence-based and detailed. The models stated above are relevant in terms of the use and adaptation of some of their elements to social and economic conditions of Ukraine in order to improve the national public policy on regulation the occupational and qualifi cation structure of specialists’ training.
Authors and Affiliations
O. Telizhenko
Keywords
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