RISK MODELING IN ADOPTION OF MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS
Journal Title: ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ ДИСКУРС - Year 2018, Vol 1, Issue 4
Abstract
The efficiency of any enterprise depends from the true management decision. The risks that affect the company's activities may occur at any stage of the decision-making process. Therefore, targeted analysis, evaluation, modeling and risk management is desirable in order to maximize the uncertainty and influence of random factors on the quality of the management decision taken. The author uses the following methods of research: analysis and synthesis, differential computing, expert, mathematical modeling, accounting and analytical, functional analysis. The classical model of estimation of money in time considering the risk factors from the position of The classical model of estimation of money in time considering the risk factors from the position of analysis of the function of a complex variable is considered. It has been established that for making sound management decisions, this model in this form is quite difficult to apply, since it does not include a risky gradient over time. It is proposed to use non-trivial options for increasing the amount of investment using a complex variable to describe the risk level distributed in time. A model of increase the amount of investment using a complex variable to describe the degree of risk, distributed in time is developed, which allows you to predict the cash flow from production activities. It is established that the use of a complex number for expressing the sum of initial investment adjusted for total operational risk is a flexible mechanism for modeling and analyzing cash flows in the area of enterprise risk management. The developed model of the increase of the amount of investments for a description of the degree of risk distributed in time in the process of economic activity of the farm "AGRO-B" has been tested. Further research will be aimed at developing practical recommendations for the application of the developed model for forecasting the movement of investment funds and production costs in the process of making managerial decisions on the development of the enterprise in the long run.
Authors and Affiliations
Iryna Gorgo
Keywords
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