UNCERTAINTY AS A PRIME CAUSE OF RISK IN MANAGEMENT ACTIVITY
Journal Title: Науковий вісник Південноукраїнського національного педагогічного університету імені К. Д. Ушинського - Year 2015, Vol 106, Issue 3
Abstract
The essence of the concepts of “risk”, “uncertainty”, “risky situation”, “risk level” has been specified in the article. The prime causes of uncertainty and its types and peculiarities have been revealed; the features of management risk have been described. The review of scientific and methodical literature gives an opportunity to note that in despite of the theoretical and practical relevance of the category of risk, it still remains understudied in modern pedagogical literature. It has been determined that the terms “risk”, “danger”, and “uncertainty” cannot be synonyms. Danger is not risk, it exists as such and it is not connected with risk to a certain moment. Danger is an objective category, existing out of the human consciousness and does not depend on person’s will. Uncertainty assumes factors, which make the results of actions undetermined, and the level of the influence on the results is unknown. The representatives of the neo&Keynesian approach differentiated categories of “risk” and “uncertainty”, explaining this difference by the dependence on a situation. Economists of neoclassical school considered these terms to be equal. The majority of modern economists think that the concepts of “risk” and “uncertainty” are not equal. They note that objective factors of probabilities on the ground of the previous period for statistical prediction are used. In the situations with uncertainty the probability is used as a subjective estimation of possible consequences. It has been proved that risk emerges in the situations of uncertainty, when a choice of alternative decisions is necessary, but a risky situation and uncertainty are not equal. That means a situation, when a probability of an event cannot be predicted and it happens unexpectedly and unpredictably. It has been also determined that a risky situation in management activity is connected with statistical processes and is accompanied by three co&existing conditions (uncertainty, the necessity of choosing an alternative variant, the possibility of qualitative and quantitative assessment of probability of one or another alternative). Management risk is considered as the carrying out of the management activity in terms of uncertainty, when a cause&and&effect result doesn’t allow to take an optimal decision for achieving a goal.
Authors and Affiliations
N. Сhernenko
Keywords
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